NFL Preseason Betting: Depth Charts, Soft Lines and Hidden Edges
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August 2024, first preseason game of the slate. I watched a third-string quarterback throw four touchdowns for a team that would go on to win six games all season. Anyone who had bet the spread based on regular-season expectations lost badly, and anyone who understood that preseason football is a fundamentally different sport cashed in. Preseason NFL betting is the quietest corner of the market, and it rewards punters who do homework the casual bettor will not touch.
Football accounts for roughly 34% of all US sports betting handle, but the preseason generates a fraction of that volume. Lower volume means less sharp money refining the lines, which means softer pricing. For a UK punter willing to study depth charts and coaching tendencies in July and August, the preseason window offers edges that simply do not exist during the regular season.
Why Preseason Lines Are Softer Than Regular-Season Markets
Regular-season NFL lines attract billions in handle. Bookmakers employ teams of analysts, subscribe to data feeds, and adjust prices in real time as money flows in. The result is a razor-sharp market where mispricing gets corrected within hours of the opening line. Preseason markets receive a tiny fraction of that attention. The bookmaker sets a line using limited data, and the volume of betting action that follows is too small to force efficient corrections.
The information asymmetry is enormous. A bookmaker setting a preseason spread relies on last year’s regular-season performance, offseason transactions, and generic coaching profiles. A punter who tracks training camp reports, follows beat reporters for specific teams, and monitors the depth chart releases that teams publish throughout August holds information the opening line has not priced in. This gap is the definition of an edge.
Preseason totals are particularly soft. Scoring patterns in exhibition games bear almost no resemblance to regular-season norms. Starters play a quarter or two, then give way to reserves whose talent level and familiarity with the playbook produce erratic results. Totals tend to be set lower than regular-season averages to account for the reduced offensive execution, but the exact number is an educated guess rather than a data-driven calculation.
Coaching Tendencies: Who Plays Starters and Who Rests Them
The single most important variable in preseason betting is how much each coach uses their starting players. Some coaches treat preseason games as dress rehearsals, playing starters for a full half to build cohesion. Others rest established veterans entirely and use the preseason exclusively to evaluate roster-bubble players. This coaching philosophy directly determines the quality of football being played, and by extension, the spread and total.
I maintain a simple spreadsheet tracking how each NFL head coach has used starters in preseason over the previous two to three seasons. Patterns emerge quickly. Coaches entering their first or second year tend to play starters more to install systems and evaluate talent. Established coaches with settled rosters pull starters early. When a coach known for resting starters faces a coach known for full-dress rehearsals, the team fielding its starters has a significant talent advantage regardless of the regular-season power gap between the two franchises.
The 2025 preseason illustrated this perfectly. Teams with new head coaches — installing new offensive or defensive schemes — played their starters deeper into games than veteran coaching staffs with established systems. The spread on these games rarely reflected the disparity in on-field talent created by the lopsided starter usage. Punters who tracked coaching tendencies captured value that the market’s generic preseason models missed entirely.
Roster-Cut Timing and the Third Preseason Game
NFL teams must trim their rosters from 90 to 53 players before the regular season, and the cuts happen in stages after each preseason game. The third preseason game — traditionally the “dress rehearsal” where starters see their most extended action — has historically been the most predictable because it most closely resembles a regular-season contest. However, the NFL’s shift to a three-preseason-game format has compressed the roster evaluation timeline, and coaching behaviour has adapted accordingly.
The strategic opportunity lies in the final preseason game, when every player on the field is fighting for a roster spot. Motivation is maximal, but talent is minimal. These games feature players who will be cut within days, and the result is chaotic, high-effort football played by athletes who are not good enough to make the 53-man roster. Totals in final preseason games are notoriously unpredictable, and spreads are borderline meaningless because neither team’s regular-season identity is represented on the field.
For NFL futures bettors, preseason provides valuable intelligence even when you do not bet the preseason games themselves. Watching how a team’s offensive line performs with backups at tackle reveals depth that matters during the regular season when injuries inevitably hit. A strong preseason from a backup quarterback increases a team’s futures value because it reduces the downside risk of a starter injury. The preseason is a scouting window, and punters who use it as such gain an informational advantage that persists into September.
Practical Preseason Betting Rules for UK Punters
First, never bet a preseason game without confirming starter availability. Team websites, beat reporters on social media, and official injury reports (less detailed in preseason but still published) tell you who is playing. A preseason spread set with the assumption that both teams will play starters becomes wildly inaccurate if one coach decides to rest his entire first-team offence.
Second, focus on the first and third preseason games. The first game features the most uncertainty and therefore the softest lines. The third game (in a three-game schedule) features the most starter involvement and therefore the most predictable outcomes. The middle game sits in an awkward zone where coaching decisions are hardest to anticipate.
Third, size your stakes small. Preseason variance is extreme. Even well-researched bets carry more uncertainty than regular-season wagers because the sample of relevant data is tiny. I stake preseason bets at 0.5% of my bankroll — half my standard unit size — to reflect the increased randomness. The edges are real, but the swings are wide, and surviving those swings requires conservative sizing.
Is it worth betting on NFL preseason games?
Preseason games offer softer lines than the regular season because betting volume is low and bookmaker models have limited data. Punters who track coaching tendencies, depth charts, and starter usage can find genuine value. However, the variance is high and stakes should be smaller than your regular-season unit size.
How many preseason games does the NFL play?
Each NFL team plays three preseason games. The league reduced the preseason from four games to three starting in 2021 when the regular season expanded to 18 weeks. The third preseason game typically features the most extended starter involvement and most closely resembles a regular-season contest.
Prepared by the nfl Sports bet editorial staff.
